The validity of forecasting
As part of our retirement package, we decided to “downsize” our community. From a metropolis to a small town; there are some interesting effects. We spent three decades with a cloak of anonymity (at least, I did). Able to go almost anywhere in the public sphere without crossing paths with anyone I recognized. Fast forward to our new abode. Out for lunch, and met two different groups of clients in the restaurant that I’d already met. Feels so much more like home, eh what.
Here in the Maritimes, we have a homegrown weather man. Frankie is busy, telling the world that there are storms ahead. Today, I tuned in to his channel and learned that there is a big storm on the way. Several hours later, Environment Canada released a bulletin, with the same content. Question: who is the source? We always test the validity of forecasting after the fact, and I intend to do just that.
The price of propane was up by several pennies this morning (on a per litre basis). I don’t need a refill yet, so now I’m wondering if there’s a forecast service for fuel prices. Not the government economists, for sure. Perhaps a homegrown prediction, before I order but checked after delivery.
Moved a small piece of wood outside and discovered green grass. Is that another predictor, or just a result of the clement weather? Should I start figuring out where my peach orchard is going to be sited? How long before I start gathering baskets of luscious fruit.
Had my first dream in Irish, last night.
